From Centrality to Coordination: Reassessing ASEAN’s Role in Mekong Water Governance Amid U.S.–China Strategic Competition

Authors

  • Nguyen Huy Hoang

    Graduate Academy of Social Sciences, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, Hanoi 100000, Vietnam
  • Ha Le Huyen

    Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, Hanoi 100000, Vietnam
  • Le Thi Thanh Tam

    Faculty of Business Administration, Dong A University, Da Nang 550000, Vietnam

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30564/re.v8i4.13573
Received: 28 May 2026 | Revised: 18 June 2026 | Accepted: 23 June 2026 | Published Online: 11 August 2026

Abstract

The Mekong sub-region has emerged as a critical arena at the intersection of environmental sustainability, water governance, and great-power competition. Home to a large population dependent on the basin’s water resources and constituting one of the world’s most biodiverse ecosystems, the Mekong River Basin is increasingly shaped by external powers—notably China through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC), and the United States through the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) and the Mekong–U.S. Partnership (MUSP). Drawing on systematic literature review and comparative policy analysis, this article examines the strategic adjustments made since 2016 and their implications for ASEAN. Using the Funan Techo Canal project in Cambodia and Cambodia’s withdrawal from the Cambodia–Laos–Vietnam Development Triangle Area (CLV-DTA) as its central case study, the paper demonstrates that the challenges of Mekong water governance stem from structural institutional asymmetries between upstream and downstream states, compounded by deepening fragmentation among ASEAN member states. The findings indicate that ASEAN can integrate sustainability into Mekong governance, but doing so requires clarifying project classification criteria, establishing new sub-regional coordination mechanisms, and strengthening independent monitoring capacity—rather than relying on declaratory cooperation alone.

Keywords:

Mekong Sub-Region; ASEAN; United States; China; Water Governance; Strategic Competition; Institutional Asymmetry

References

[1] Mekong River Commission, 2025. MRC endorses new Strategic Plan 2026–2030, marking a shift toward impact-focused basin management. Available from: https://www.mrcmekong.org/media-releases/pr-29nov2025 (cited 22 March 2026).

[2] Charoensri, N., Suksai, C., 2026. China-Japan competition on regional connectivity in the Mekong Subregion: economic and security challenges and future scenarios. Asia Pacific Business Review. 1–23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13602381.2026.2645072

[3] Long PP. 2026. The promise and perils of the 1995 Mekong River Agreement (commentary). Available from: https://news.mongabay.com/2026/03/the-promise-and-perils-of-the-1995-mekong-river-agreement-commentary/ (cited 20 March 2026).

[4] Nguyen, T.D., Ponka, T.I., Tran, T.M.H., et al., 2025. The Geostrategic Rivalry between the U.S. and China in the Mekong Subregion (2009–2024). Международные отношения. (3), 40–58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7256/2454-0641.2025.3.75390 (in Russian)

[5] Barbarossa, V., Schmitt, R.J.P., 2024. Strategic restoration-development mitigates tradeoffs between hydropower and fish habitat fragmentation in the Mekong. One Earth. 7(6), 1096–1107. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.05.009

[6] Liu, J., Chen, D., Mao, G., et al., 2022. Past and Future Changes in Climate and Water Resources in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin: Current Understanding and Future Research Directions. Engineering. 13, 144–152. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2021.06.026

[7] Vietnam National Mekong Committee, 2026. Mekong River Basin. Available from: https://vnmc.gov.vn/?p=716 (cited 24 March 2026). (in Vietnamese)

[8] Soukhaphon, A., Baird, I.G., Hogan, Z.S., 2021. The Impacts of Hydropower Dams in the Mekong River Basin: A Review. Water. 13(3), 265. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030265

[9] Haefner, A., 2024. Water governance in the Mekong region: the role and impact of civil society organizations. Water International. 49(3–4), 310–317. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2024.2321777

[10] Ha, H.T., 2025. China’s Statecraft through the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation: Building a Sino-Centric Regional Order. Available from: https://strategicspace.nbr.org/chinas-statecraft-through-the-lancang-mekong-cooperation-building-a-sino-centric-regional-order/ (cited 15 March 2026).

[11] Van, T.T.T., Huong, N.T., Kiet, L.H., 2026. China deploys maritime silk road infrastructure and economic leverage to pursue South China Sea territorial ambitions in Southeast Asia. Discover Global Society. 4(1), 98. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s44282-026-00455-x

[12] Santasombat, Y., Lee, K.C., 2024. The Impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia. Springer: Singapore.

[13] Vineles, P.G., 2019. ASEAN and China struggle to buckle the belt and road. East Asia Forum. Available from: https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/01/26/asean-and-china-struggle-to-buckle-the-belt-and-road / (cited 26 January 2026).

[14] Gong, X., 2022. Words Can Speak Louder Than Actions: Examining China’s Discourse Approach in Mekong Governance. Asia Policy. 17(2), 21–27. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2022.0022

[15] United States Mission to ASEAN, 2022. Launch of the Mekong-United States Partnership: Expanding United States Engagement with the Mekong Region. Available from: https://asean.usmission.gov/launch-of-the-mekong-u-s-partnership-expanding-u-s-engagement-with-the-mekong-region (cited 1 January 2026).

[16] East-West Center, 2020. The Mekong-United States Partnership: A new chapter in United States engagement. East-West Center. Available from: https://www.eastwestcenter.org/publications/forward-the-mekong-us-partnership (cited 2 January 2026).

[17] Ba, A.D., 2019. China’s “Belt and Road” in Southeast Asia: Constructing the Strategic Narrative in Singapore. Asian Perspective. 43(2), 249–272. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2019.0010

[18] Kuik, C.-C., 2021. The Twin Chessboards of US-China Rivalry: Impact on the Geostrategic Supply and Demand in Post-Pandemic Asia. Asian Perspective. 45(1), 157–176. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2021.0020

[19] Khoo, N., 2022. Great power Rivalry and Southeast Asian agency: Southeast Asia in an Era of US-China strategic competition. Political Science. 74(2–3), 141–154. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00323187.2023.2186251

[20] Jaknanihan, A.A., 2022. Minilateralism and Great Power Competition during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Mekong Region. Journal of Integrative International Relations. 7(1), 1–20. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15642/jiir.2022.7.1.1-20

[21] Busbarat, P., 2018. Grabbing the Forgotten: China’s Leadership Consolidation in Mainland Southeast Asia through the Mekong-Lancang Cooperation. ISEAS Perspective. 7: 1–9. Available from: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/ISEAS_Perspective_2018_7@50.pdf

[22] Pham, L.D.M.H., Guerra, J.D.P., Nguyen, H.Q., et al., 2022. Socio-hydrological approach for farmer adaptability to hydrological changes: a case study in salinity-controlled areas of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 67(4), 495–507. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2022.2030865

[23] Zhang, K., Morovati, K., Tian, F., et al., 2023. Regional contributions of climate change and human activities to altered flow of the Lancang-mekong river. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 50, 101535. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101535

[24] Xie, J., Xu, Y.-P., Guo, Y., et al., 2022. Understanding the impact of climatic variability on terrestrial water storage in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 67(6), 963–978. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2022.2044482

[25] Sayavongs, M., 2025. Opportunities and Challenges Associated with Synergy Between the Mekong Sub-Regional Cooperation Frameworks and the ASEAN-Led Mechanisms. In: Hung Son, N., Thi Lan Anh, N. (Eds.). The South China Sea: The Geo-Political Epicenter of the Indo-Pacific? Springer Nature: Singapore. pp. 147–155. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-8209-3_12

[26] Tran, T.A., Tran, H.V., Pittock, J., et al., 2022. Political ecology of freshening the Mekong’s coastal delta: narratives of place-based land-use dynamics. Journal of Land Use Science. 17(1), 471–486. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2022.2126907

[27] Tran, T.A., Pittock, J., 2024. When water policies derail livelihood aspirations: farmers’ agency in everyday politics in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Environmental Sociology. 10(3), 267–278. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2024.2323601

[28] Gong, X., 2026. Ponder the path of thy feet: How China’s security–development nexus works in the Mekong region. European Journal of International Security. 11(1), 77–95. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2025.5

[29] Phan, X.D., 2025. Vietnam’s hedging amid U.S.-China Mekong rivalry: risk management under uncertainties. The Pacific Review. 38(4), 646–674. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2024.2425347

[30] Dang, H., Pokhrel, Y., 2024. Evolution of river regimes in the Mekong River basin over 8 decades and the role of dams in recent hydrological extremes. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 28(14), 3347–3365. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3347-2024

[31] Kondolf, G.M., Rubin, Z.K., Minear, J.T., 2014. Dams on the Mekong: Cumulative sediment starvation. Water Resources Research. 50(6), 5158–5169. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014651

[32] Kondolf, G.M., Schmitt, R.J.P., Carling, P.A., et al., 2022. Save the Mekong Delta from drowning. Science. 376(6593), 583–585. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abm5176

[33] Yu, H., Chen, S., 2022. PNPCA Consultation and Improvement for Hydro-power Development on Mekong River. E3S Web of Conferences. 346, 02014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202234602014

[34] Park, E., Loc, H.H., Van Binh, D., et al., 2022. The worst 2020 saline water intrusion disaster of the past century in the Mekong Delta: Impacts, causes, and management implications. Ambio. 51(3), 691–699. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01577-z

[35] Tinh N. 2025. The Ca Mau Peninsula – Water Resources, Challenges, and Pathways to Sustainable Development. Science and Technology Publishing House. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/397095651_Ban_dao_Ca_Mau-Quan_ly_tong_hop_tai_nguyen_nuoc_-_tiep_can_sinh_thai_phat_trien_ben_vung_The_Ca_Mau_Peninsula_-_Water_Resources_Challenges_and_Pathways_to_Sustainable_Development (cited 14 March 2026). (in Vietnamese)

[36] Paik, S., Le, D.T.P., Nhu, L.T., et al., 2020. Salt-tolerant rice variety adoption in the Mekong River Delta: Farmer adaptation to sea-level rise. PLOS ONE. 15(3), e0229464. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229464

[37] Mekong River Commission & USAID, 2024. MRC and USAID Announce Partnership to Enhance Mekong Basin Management. Mekong River Commission. Available from: https://www.mrcmekong.org/media-releases/mrc-and-usaid-announce-partnership-to-enhance-mekong-basin-management-2/2024/ (cited 15 March 2026).

[38] Qiao-Franco, G., Karmazin, A., Kolmaš, M., 2025. The Indo-Pacific and the Next Phase of ASEAN Centrality. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs. 44(3), 413–435. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/18681034241307658

[39] Jose, H.S., 2022. From Indo-Pacific Centrality to Strategic Autonomy: Asean – Us Perspective. Indonesian Journal of International Relations. 6(1), 205–228. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32787/ijir.v6i1.311

[40] Hossen, M., Connor, J., Ahammed, F., 2023. How to Resolve Transboundary River Water Sharing Disputes. Water. 15(14), 2630. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w15142630

[41] Quang, P.V.T., 2024. Weaknesses in Mekong river governance: The case of the Funan Techo Canal. ISEAS Perspective. 92: 1–12. Available from: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/ISEAS_Perspective_2024_92.pdf

[42] Sotha, T., 2025. Cambodia and China Sign Landmark Agreement for $1.156 billion Funan Techo Canal Project. Khmer Post Asia. Available from: https://en.khmerpostasia.com/2025/04/19/cambodia-china-sign-landmark-agreement-for-funan-techo-canal-project/ (cited 13 January 2026).

[43] Rinith, T., 2025. Cambodia to meet MRC’s request on Funan Techo Canal documentation. Khmer Times. Available form: https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501675486/cambodia-to-meet-mrcs-request-on-funan-techo-canal-documentation/ (cited 13 February 2026)

[44] Sang, H.T., 2025. Cambodia’s Trilateral Deal Pullout Strains its Relations with Vietnam. Fulcrum. Available from: https://fulcrum.sg/cambodias-trilateral-deal-pullout-strains-its-relations-with-vietnam/ (cited 12 March 2026).

[45] Chapman, N., 2026. Vietnamese Foreign Policy in the Post-Doi Moi Era: A Case for Strategic Autonomy. TRaNS: Trans -Regional and -National Studies of Southeast Asia. 1–24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/trn.2026.10016

[46] Vuving, A.L., 2023. The evolution of Vietnamese foreign policy in the ‘Doi Moi’ era. In Vietnam: Navigating a Rapidly Changing Economy, Society, and Political Order. Harvard University Press: Cambridge, MA, USA. pp. 347–369. https://doi.org/10.2307/jj.17331644.22

[47] Barter, D., Sar, M., 2023. Hydropower Hegemony: Examining Civil Society Opposition to Dams in Cambodia. The Journal of Development Studies. 59(7), 961–979. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2023.2188110

[48] Middleton, C., 2022. The political ecology of large hydropower dams in the Mekong Basin: A comprehensive review. Water Alternatives. 15(2), 251–289. Available from: https://www.water-alternatives.org/index.php/alldoc/articles/vol15/v15issue2/668-a15-2-10/file

[49] Miller, M.A., Alfajri, Astuti, R., et al., 2021. Hydrosocial rupture: causes and consequences for transboundary governance. Ecology and Society. 26(3), art21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12545-260321

Downloads

How to Cite

Hoang, N. H., Huyen, H. L., & Tam, L. T. T. (2026). From Centrality to Coordination: Reassessing ASEAN’s Role in Mekong Water Governance Amid U.S.–China Strategic Competition. Research in Ecology, 8(4), 215–229. https://doi.org/10.30564/re.v8i4.13573

Issue

Vol.8, Iss.4 (August 2026): In Progress

Article Type

Article

License

Copyright © 2026 Nguyen Huy Hoang, Ha Le Huyen, Le Thi Thanh Tam

Creative Commons License

This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.

Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC